Are the National Parties in Decline?

One of the pitfalls of a multi-party, multi-cultural democracy is the lack of stability in the Government. Very often, the electorate shows such results that political parties coagulate together to form almost unholy post-poll alliances. The “concerned voter” has to witness accusations of horse-trading, intimidation, unlawful disqualifications and more. In cases such as in Germany, the polity enters a perennial cycle of decisive fragmentation such that no party ever gets the majority in Parliament.

In the Indian context, states are moving towards more consolidated results, a few glowing examples being:

· Uttar Pradesh: After about 15 years, the Uttar Pradesh Assembly saw a majority for the ruling party, i.e. the BSP.

· Karnataka: After a long spell of unruly alliances, Karnataka gave an almost-majority to the BJP

However, there are only 9 states in which the BJP and the INC are in direct confrontation, namely Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Goa, Arunachal Pradesh and Chattisgarh.

In all other states, the two national parties are dependent on their regional allies.

The consequences of such a scenario are:

1. Going by the 2004 results:

· The INC needed to win 65% of the seats it contested to get a majority of its own

· The BJP needed to win 3 in 4 seats it contested to get a majority of its own

These are both highly unlikely situations that resulted in the two major national parties winning only 283 seats put together.

2. The national parties have no way to grow since their alliance partners hold them to ransom. For example, the INC’s alliance with the BSP in the mid-1996s virtually ended the INC’s seriousness as a player in Uttar Pradesh.

VOTE SHARES OF THE MAJOR NATIONAL PARTIES

SINCE 1984

As one can see, the combined vote share of the INC and the BJP has remained fairly constant at around 50% of all votes cast. The INC has consistently got more votes than the BJP but as we shall see in the next section, the BJP has often got more seats because the INC’s votes are scattered all over the country while the BJP’s is concentrated in pockets. This point will become clearer when one observes the map at the end of this segment. The BJP’s seats are completely concentrated in and around central India, whereas the Congress is present almost all over India.

Since the combined vote share of the national parties has remained fairly constant, it would be far-fetched to say that they are in a state of combined decline. However, the BJP of late has seen a decline in its vote-share because of, as I suppose, the revival of the INC.

SEATS WON BY THE MAJOR NATIONAL PARTIES

SINCE 1984

Unlike the vote share, the number of seats won by the INC and BJP combined has gone down almost consistently since 1984. Moreover, the golden age of the BJP in the electoral battlefield seems to be coming to an end. On the basis of three back-to-back humiliations, the INC was written off. But the INC is making a determined comeback of sorts. The BJP can no longer bank on the INC’s decline – it must carve out a separate anti-Congress identity for itself to avoid its disappearance.

The single most important reason is that the BJP has been unable to sustain the gains it made out of the INC’s decline, especially in the Hindi heartland (since that is the major area of decline for the INC). For example, the BJP has yielded the gains it made in Uttar Pradesh to the SP and BSP. If you include these 80 seats to the combined tally of the BJP and INC, the number of seats won remains constant. This points to a disturbing truth about the importance of UP and Bihar in the overall electoral arithmetic.

Another possible reason for this trend may be the fact that the INC and BJP are, on an average, contesting less number of seats than they used to do earlier. If you contest less seats, you obviously need to have a better rate of success to get the same number of seats. This point is illustrated by the following table:

Seats Contested	1984	1989	1991	1996	1998	1999	2004
INC	224	225	468	471	388	339	364
BJP	491	510	487	529	477	453	417

Number of Seats Contested by INC and BJP

THE REASON FOR THE RISE AND FALL

OF THE BJP

I heard a very valid point on TV about the difference between the late 1990s and today. In the 1990s, the INC was seen to be in a state of terminal decline. The BJP propped up solely in place on the declining INC. In UP, Bihar, Gujarat, MP and other states where the Congress was the single major power, the BJP took up the anti-Congress space. But in states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Jammu and Kashmir, where the anti-Congress space already had strong parties, the BJP has till date been unable to make a mark for itself.

Today, with the Congress steady, if not in revival, the BJP’s very raison-d’ètre is no longer present. How is this going to affect the BJP in the future decades? Will the BJP wither and die out? Or will the political scenario stagnate as it is today, with the BJP and INC present in the 130-180 seats range?

My guess is that the BJP will stagnate and become dependent on its allies as the INC is on the RJD and DMK. As for the INC, Sonia Gandhi had pulled off a huge victory by halting the INC’s slide. My guess is that the INC should not slip much further. At least its diverse vote-share should not.