BSP : The Emerging Third Front?

The 2004 Lok Sabha elections threw up another interesting statistic. After the INC and BJP, the BSP is the third largest party in India by vote-share is the Bahujan Samaj Party (this is excluding the extraordinary performance of the CPM in the 2004 polls).

This came despite the fact that the 2004 elections in Uttar Pradesh were won decisively by the Samajwadi Party (SP). In a year that the BSP was on the wrong side of the electorate, it picked up 5.33% of the national vote count. This time, when the BSP is seen to be going strong and steady in UP, one can only infer that the BSP would most likely cross the 6% vote share mark.

The BSP gained the status of a ‘National Party’ in 1998. Its vote-share is quite geographically spread-out. For example, its vote share in the states that went to polls in Nov-Dec 2008 was, on an average, around 8%. This time, the BSP has launched its campaign from Kerala. This shows the ambition of Ms.Mayawati to take the BSP to the position of a viable alternative to the INC and the BJP.

The reasons for the rise of the BSP can be enumerated as follows:

· Most prominent Dalit icon: It goes almost without saying that Ms.Mayawati is the only national Dalit icon in Indian polity. Most political commentators concur that she has a very large transferable votebank in the form of the oppressed sections of society

· The Large size of UP: Since UP has 80 Lok Sabha seats (which is close to 15% of seats all over India), it is only an obvious conclusion that the party that holds UP would have the key to the centre. The SP won 37 seats in 2004 and hence, could protect the UPA Government at the centre.

· Political Amibition: Ms.Mayawati has cleverly projected herself as the de-facto leader of the Third Front. Due to this, smaller parties will tend to coagulate around her with time and is likely to aid in the growth of the BSP.

· Large Immigrant Population of UP: The reason ascribed to the BSP success in Delhi was the large number of immigrants from UP. This factor, combined with the Dalit card, is likely to attract the Hindi and Dalit votes to her, making her a formidable ally in many parts of the country.

VOTE SHARES OF THE BSP SINCE 1989

The BSP’s vote share in UP (and consequently, all over India) jumped in 1996. The primary reason for this was that the BJP, which had filled in Congress’ shoes in 1991, was in a decline now and the BSP took up half of that vacant space (the other half went to the SP).

Besides UP, the BSP’s presence is strong in Punjab (7.67%), Uttarakhand (6.77%), Haryana (4.98%) Madhya Pradesh (4.75%) and Chattisgarh (4.54%). The BSP gets a significant share of the votes in and around the Hindi heartland. However, as we shall see in the next section, these votes do not transform into seats.

SEATS WON BY THE BSP SINCE 1989

The BSP faces a paradoxical situation, much like the Congress. While its vote-share in states outside of UP has increased, the number of seats it wins outside UP has declined to zero in the last two elections. This had caused its tally to dip to 5 seats in 1998. But its strong showing in UP in 1999 and 2004 took its seats share to 19 in 2004.

The primary reason for this paradox is that the states in which BSP had previously won seats, i.e. Madhya Pradesh (INC-BJP), PunjabHaryana (INC-INLD) moved towards bipolarity and consolidation of votes. Hence, a significant amount of votes could not translate into any seats.

Moreover, the BSP attracts almost uniform number of votes in a large number of constituencies and lacks strong pockets in any of the above-mentioned states. Since the votes are not consolidated, the BSP is unable to win seats outside of UP and is thus unlikely to win a significant amount of seats outside of UP, despite contesting on more seats than even the BJP.

1989	1991	1996	1998	1999	2004
231	245	210	251	225	435

Number of Seats Contested by the BSP

IN CONCLUSION

The BSP is aggressively trying to show a pan-India footprint. However, its voter base outside of UP is too diffused to be of any significant consequence.

The best bet for the BSP would be to induct local leaders of the major parties in that state (like it did in Delhi). This would at least open its tally in states outside of UP and help to project it as a viable alternative to the INC and the BJP.

But having seen an almost steady increase in its seat share in UP, the BSP is likely to emerge a very strong player in the national scene. The news channels project BSP to get at least 25 seats or at most 50. This could make it the fourth largest party or even third largest party in Parliament and help it to play a decisive role in any future Government.