Here's something that I had been suspecting all this while - the SP's victory was not as dominant as the BSP's in 2007. The first indicator was, of course, that BSP's vote share at nearly 28% in 2012, was higher than SP's 26% in 2007; this even though Mayawati's outfit won fewer seats than did SP in 2012.
Here is an article in the Economic Times that provides even more evidence. Among the regions of Uttar Pradesh, the BSP is still the leading party in West UP and Bundelkhand. The latter is fairly obvious, given the high concentration of lower castes in the barren region. Western UP probably voted for Mayawati given the high growth witnessed in these regions as compared to other parts of UP, or even the country for that matter. Thus, it was primarily in Central UP and Poorvanchal that the SP made a killing. So much for Mayawati's plan of dividing UP, which she would have hoped would read dividends in Poorvanchal. Is the vote really against this proposed division, or was this a non-issue for the electorate? That Poorvanchal was the most ill-governed of all regions under Mayawati's regime is well-known.
What significance do these trends hold? For one, they justify Mayawati's confidence that she will return to power in 2017. If the Samajwadi government under performs in its first two years, it will also allow Mayawati to increase her seat share in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, and emerge as a power center. With the Congress expected to do much worse than in 2009, and (as I have consistently believed) the BJP limited in its growth, will we see a rise in Mayawati's national profile? Mayawati has never been a direct part of a Central Government. Will we see that happen? If yes, will she demand the PM's post - her stated lifetime goal? Interesting times ahead for the Maya-watchers.
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